Tesla Up on Solid Robotaxi News: When Will Tesla Rent Cortex

Key Points

▶ 0:13 Tesla's stock run is driven mostly by technical trading, with no bad news and some positive developments keeping it resilient.
▶ 0:41 Much higher European sales numbers this year are generating strong headlines and supporting the stock.
▶ 1:10 The robotaxi situation is "on a pause," with Tesla drawing down its Austin supervised fleet while the stock sets up well technically.
[1:38–1:53] Despite heavy intraday volatility, the market stayed positive and appears resigned to the idea that the Iran situation is converging on some form of solution, which is underpinning confidence.
[1:54–2:07] The original ceasefire in April is credited as the point where the rally "really kicked off," following the market’s low at the end of March.
[2:07–2:14] The market front-ran the first ceasefire by pricing in that parties were "not going back to fighting," and current conditions are now "really close" to that same inflection point.
▶ 2:15 Roughly 80% of headlines are unreliable and effectively made up by people "in some room."
▶ 2:28 The White House got ahead of today's rumors by clarifying that certain reports are baseless.
▶ 2:52 Media applies a double standard: fact-checking U.S. officials/Musk, but quoting Iranian state TV without verification.
▶ 3:09 A key cultural factor is "saving face": in negotiations, you cannot humiliate or decisively defeat someone and then "kill them"—even from a stronger position, you must leave the other side with dignity.
▶ 3:33 The speaker notes this face-saving principle has not always been practiced in social media rhetoric, but sets that aside as a side issue.
▶ 3:46 The market has resigned itself to the idea that "we're not going back to fighting" and is "converging on" a negotiated or de-escalated resolution rather than renewed hostilities.
▶ 3:54 The speaker rejects all official transit counts, saying “the media has no idea” and “I don't believe any of these counters.”
▶ 4:07 They argue hidden shipping activity is proven by the absence of ships carrying people with “no food and no water,” concluding vessels “are moving” through the Strait.
▶ 4:19 Official figures represent only a minimum; the true number is “many, many, many more,” and the lack of shortages confirms far higher traffic than acknowledged.
▶ 4:35 Oil at $89 indicates markets are not pricing in imminent supply collapse.
▶ 4:52 Supply chains for everything through the Strait of Hormuz will become multi-sourced as firms move away from risk.
▶ 6:02 Over a two-year horizon, 80–90% of strait-supplied oil is projected to be sourced elsewhere, as Iran is seen as an unreliable partner.
▶ 6:09 The speaker references "the straight" (Strait), continuing the prior shipping/oil discussion.
▶ 6:10 Another participant agrees affirmatively, showing consensus on the preceding Strait-related point.
▶ 6:12 The conversation deliberately pivots to war/conflict with "speaking of the war, the..." before cutting off.
▶ 6:18 Trump suggested including Iran in the Abraham Accords, which the speaker calls a major shift in approach.
▶ 6:30 The proposal is a stark reversal from Iran's previous hostile rhetoric, moving from confrontation toward a trade pact and non-aggression agreement.
▶ 6:45 The speaker expresses skepticism, trailing off with "But I don't believe..." about the feasibility or sincerity of the idea.
▶ 6:45 Trump's remarks on Iran were not impulsive; they likely reflected a deliberate strategy or underlying context.
▶ 7:23 Trump will deal with adversaries if it advances peace, creates new U.S. revenue, or allows for unconventional creative solutions.
▶ 7:48 Trump wants "brought peace to that" region to be a central part of his legacy, informed by decades of observing the Middle East's constant conflicts.
▶ 8:15 The U.S. bombed Libya heavily for seven or eight months in 2011, highlighting how long military conflicts can last.
▶ 8:36 The key debate: if you oppose U.S. involvement in Iran and its nuclear ambitions, what is the alternative to prevent Iran from getting a bomb? Iran's nuclear program has deep roots and gives it leverage.
▶ 9:26 President Trump is less focused on regional oil flows and genuinely wants the nuclear issue resolved.
▶ 9:36 Once the conflict is fully resolved, the market should rise, oil should fall, and bonds should retreat from their recent moves.
▶ 9:49 Bonds have been driven by war-related supply issues and inflation uncertainty; it’s unclear whether they are done reacting.
▶ 10:18 Housing prices fell nationally for a fourth straight month — a drop one speaker says he predicted early, yet it had little immediate effect on bonds.
▶ 10:39 The speaker equates housing demand with earlier labor-requirement predictions, calling it "the same deal" driven by immigration levels.
▶ 10:41 Citing 3.4 to 4 million immigrants, the speaker argues that without this level of immigration, the U.S. "don't have as much demand for housing."
▶ 10:47 Fewer immigrants reduce household formations, lowering pressure on housing construction and pricing.
▶ 10:51 Raising rates in response to a war-driven oil shock would be short-sighted; the public may expect Fed action, but that would be a policy mistake.
▶ 11:09 The Fed should not raise rates for an oil supply issue because rate hikes cannot affect oil supply—they would only cause harmful "demand destruction."
▶ 11:28 With oil supply chains running 4 to 8 months long, monetary intervention would be a "train wreck," so the Fed will not hike rates simply because gas costs too much.
▶ 11:34 Some homebuyers may take out a mortgage now expecting to refinance within six months at a lower rate, possibly multiple times.
▶ 11:49 This refinance optimism is driven by President Trump repeatedly calling for lower rates and visible Federal Reserve movement that could deliver cuts.
▶ 12:12 With 3.3 million people leaving and about three people per household, roughly one million households will no longer be needed.
▶ 12:27 Expected immigration of 1 to 1.5 million people translates to about 700,000 new household formations, with zero organic domestic formations.
▶ 12:41 Annual housing need is only 700,000 units versus current construction of 1.3 million, making the pace unsustainable and likely to pressure prices first, then inventory.
▶ 12:48 Conversation opens with Tesla pricing and expectations that inventory levels will rise, setting up the context before the main news.
▶ 13:00 Tesla is expanding hiring of AI safety operators to 32 cities, according to "Tesla Yoda," signaling a major scale-up in robotaxi safety infrastructure.
▶ 13:08 The expansion is framed as "slowly, slowly, slowly, all at once," suggesting the company is incrementally building toward a large-scale robotaxi rollout.
▶ 13:17 Market skepticism on X about Tesla's robotaxi being "not yet real" misses how investing works: prices reflect expected future progress, not just current milestones.
▶ 13:50 Tesla's 350–400 P/E multiple exists for a reason—it's tied to robotaxi potential, not minor sales bumps like 6,000 more cars in Europe.
▶ 14:04 Tesla is getting credit for robotaxi progress: analysts are visiting Texas, riding in the unsupervised robotaxis, and having positive experiences.
▶ 14:19 Passengers have generally positive experiences, with only occasional hiccups; the serious accident risk for robotaxis is nearly eliminated.
▶ 14:37 Scaling too quickly (e.g., jumping from 39 to 89 robotaxis) could "kill the golden goose" and jeopardize Tesla's trillion-dollar valuation potential; the company should perfect details before ramping.
▶ 15:10 Focus has shifted from major safety incidents to smaller "convenience issues," including new ones in build 143, indicating remaining friction points to resolve.
▶ 15:31 Tesla's continued progress is evident because "everything else has to proceed and it is" — if there were a fundamental problem, Tesla would see it months ahead and would cut hiring and investment to avoid a "cash burn."
▶ 16:01 Corroborating evidence: Tesla is not reducing but increasing its commitments, as shown by more Cybercabs piling up in the parking area outside Austin.
▶ 16:15 Accumulating idle Cybercabs makes no sense if a major cutback were planned — "you got to put them somewhere and you don't want to just have them sitting around" — so this inventory is treated as proof the robotaxi program remains on track.
▶ 16:26 The key open question is whether Tesla will push Cybercab production to "peak velocity" quickly, a question the speaker wanted answered on the earnings call but wasn't.
▶ 16:45 If Tesla doesn't ramp at maximum speed, the likely reason is a self-imposed demand limiter tied to safely expanding the robotaxi service.
▶ 16:56 Elon's definition of "mass scale" differs from conventional auto volume thinking: he aims to fundamentally change global transportation, not just grow incrementally.
▶ 17:28 People still say “pedal to the metal” even when referring to a car that has no pedal at all.
▶ 17:30 We’re still saying “shifting gears” despite modern autonomous vehicles having no physical gear shifter or manual transmission.
▶ 17:33 Language is lagging behind industry changes, and the terminology "is going to have to change."
▶ 17:37 The speaker notes that the shifting language must adapt to keep up with reality.
▶ 17:42 Asks for 30-day predictions on Tesla, SpaceX, and the IPO, including price trajectory and merger outcomes, with an open-ended "anyway you want" response.
▶ 18:12 There is significant demand for SpaceX, referenced within a 30-day window.
▶ 18:22 SpaceX is unique — Elon created a company with no true equivalent, and a crowning achievement that no one else could replicate.
▶ 18:46 Valuation depends on whether SpaceX makes something useful people want to buy and generate revenue, with growth still the key unanswered question.
▶ 18:59 A viewer asks about competition and who could take it all away, setting up the speaker's response on how rivals will be framed.
▶ 19:07 The speaker warns of "lazy reporting" that will treat Rocket Lab and Bezos as credible rivals, whitewashing the fact these companies are still "five to seven years behind Tesla" in making a profitable, desirable EV.
▶ 19:34 He criticizes superficial Bezos comparisons, arguing that being a billionaire or doing interviews from a factory does not make someone an Elon-level competitor without substance or track record.
▶ 19:20 The FUD meter will be "through the roof" as hostile media push narratives like a "SpaceX killer" against Elon's companies.
▶ 19:41 The media "despises" Elon Musk, driven by what he says, his actions, his politics, and his effectiveness—not just one issue.
▶ 19:46 Despite loving his products, coastal media across print, TV, blogs, and social media remain personally hostile toward him, so expect relentless negative coverage.
▶ 20:29 The speaker has a positive long-term outlook, believing the public will see through short-term negativity and that the IPO should perform well.
▶ 20:38 The IPO is hard to predict, with many moving parts, potential acquisitions or mergers as major wildcards, and a need to wait for stability.
▶ 21:18 A second panelist agrees, emphasizing that recent IPOs show the outcome "could be extremely unpredictable."
▶ 21:24 The outcome of a potential SpaceX IPO is extremely unpredictable, with no firm prediction offered.
[21:32-21:40] A SpaceX IPO would not force a broad market sell-off, partly because roughly $8 trillion in sideline cash could come into the market as new money.
[21:48-21:56] With the IPO possibly happening in two weeks and markets at all-time highs, a lot could change, making the situation one to watch rather than predict.
▶ 22:01 Only about 1% of heavy industry and manufacturing is using AI so far, according to a previous guest estimate.
▶ 22:15 Recent AI signals conflict: Uber and others are cutting AI budgets despite heavy token use, while Sam Altman reversed his stance to say AI will create plenty of jobs and downplay the need for UBI; Andreessen similarly predicted “lots and lots of jobs.”
▶ 22:51 Historical adoption of technologies like Microsoft, PCs, and the internet took 7–15 years to fully reach industry, so AI adoption will likely be gradual rather than immediate.
▶ 23:30 The guest describes AI's economic and labor-market impact as uneven, with "peaks and valleys" ahead rather than a smooth trajectory.
▶ 23:45 He warns against AI CEOs' marketing hype, noting they are motivated to portray models as extremely powerful—even "lethal"—to win deals, with competitors escalating claims.
▶ 24:24 While acknowledging real but limited job risk, he cites hiring data from Indeed and Jobs.com showing software engineering postings at record highs.
▶ 25:01 The central question is whether AI will destroy jobs or act as a force multiplier, letting people accomplish far more than before.
▶ 25:18 The U.S. has major manufacturing gaps—it does not make its own drugs or electronics, and even with Tesla, roughly a third or more of vehicles are built abroad.
▶ 26:23 The main barrier to U.S. phone assembly is labor cost arbitrage: U.S. assembly workers earn $20–$25/hour (or $40–$65 with union labor), versus $2–$10 in Mexico and $2–$5 in China.
▶ 27:04 China's manufacturing costs serve as the baseline, with a distinction between coastal and inner regions.
▶ 27:07 Vietnam, Thailand, and similar Southeast Asian countries are significantly cheaper, at roughly 30–40% of China's cost level.
▶ 27:15 Korea's manufacturing costs are "kicked up" higher, making it more expensive than Southeast Asia and likely near or above China's baseline.
▶ 27:18 The move toward a globalized supply chain was a deliberate choice, and once the "phone guys" shipped manufacturing to China, nearly every tier followed—except some silicon.
▶ 27:47 Silicon production remained a notable exception for a long time: early 3G/4G processors, switches at the Tower Jazz fab, and power amplifiers were still made domestically (or in Asia).
▶ 28:11 The speaker cuts off this silicon tangent to stay focused on the broader offshoring and supply-chain discussion.
▶ 28:11 The real potential is AI combined with robotics, making every factory machine intelligent with cameras and inference chips to prevent defects and reduce COGS.
▶ 29:25 The U.S. trails China roughly 4:1 in factory robotics density, so it must rebuild its manufacturing base and remove tariffs on factory-building equipment.
▶ 29:53 AI plus robotics can enable domestic production of pharmaceuticals, electronics, and silicon, cutting logistics costs and creating jobs — a non-zero-sum outcome.
▶ 30:34 U.S. manufacturing should expand significantly and integrate AI; current AI usage is only ~1%, representing a massive untapped opportunity.
▶ 30:50 Humanoid robotics could be a "great equalizer" and a job creator in manufacturing, contrary to fears about automation.
▶ 31:19 AI-driven advances in materials, metallurgy, and automation can push products across critical price thresholds, making previously unviable products feasible.
▶ 31:55 The opportunity will not materialize on its own; it must be actively pursued and built.
▶ 32:18 Many companies are still hesitant and slow to act, waiting to see if conditions like tariffs change rather than committing to major moves.
▶ 32:34 Without making a decisive strategic leap, the U.S. will never achieve independence from greater China.
▶ 32:34 The speaker stresses that a major "leap" is still needed, or the U.S. will "never" become independent of Greater China and Asia, framing the urgency behind domestic energy and manufacturing efforts.
▶ 32:41 The host announces this is the "last subject" for the day, transitioning away from the prior macro/supply-chain discussion.
▶ 32:44 The host asks for updates on EOS, Bloom Energy, and other alternative energy providers the guest has been tracking, setting up the segment's focus on energy storage and fuel-cell players.
▶ 32:56 Tesla remains "far and away" the leader in energy storage, even while acknowledging competitors make similar products.
▶ 33:13 Houston Megapack production ramp is targeted to reach full scale around the end of 2027, if the facility scales as hoped.
▶ 33:26 Tesla's deal to supply Megapacks to Meta's data center is cited as another example of Tesla/Elon Musk setting the trend in energy storage.
▶ 33:54 EOS is positioned as the go-to solution for long-duration storage (8–10 hours), especially in dense urban settings like downtown New York.
▶ 34:08 EOS uses a zinc-halide aqueous chemistry that won't melt, combust, or blow up in flames, making it a major safety advantage.
▶ 34:20 Fire risk is a key concern near data centers, and Tesla Megapacks require considerable distance from buildings—unlike EOS's safer chemistry.
▶ 34:30 EOS just reported earnings and is roughly on plan, but remains very early-stage.
▶ 34:55 Key financial milestones: gross margin positive by year-end, EBITDA positive next year.
▶ 35:06 Demand has huge upside, and EOS is over 91% locally sourced with all-American production.
▶ 35:22 Be careful with other storage providers; Fluence has a strong pipeline but relies on other makers for cells and acts as an integrator, unlike Tesla.
▶ 35:41 Tesla's edge: Auto Bidder software, both short- and long-duration products, and the most capacity in the space.
▶ 35:52 The energy storage space is expected to keep rising, supporting a bullish Tesla energy outlook.
▶ 35:52 One speaker advises viewers to "just watch this energy space," expecting it to keep going up and up.
▶ 36:00 Tesla is slightly lower in after-hours trading, down 0.35% to $438.80.
▶ 36:08 Tesla had reached an intraday high of $445.00 during the regular session before pulling back.
▶ 36:12 Bonds are the first market checkpoint: pre-market bonds were up 2 and yields had eased to 4.48, but one speaker cautions the bond market remains a risk to equities because it is reacting to oil and inflation expectations.
▶ 37:00 Attention turns to the upcoming PCE inflation report (possibly due Friday); a hot print would be a negative surprise, and one speaker criticizes current inflation data reporting as "complete nonsense."
▶ 37:20 Oil presents a mixed picture: WTI is up $1.13 but stays under $90, while Brent is down $4.60 to $94.98, leaving the implication for markets open.
▶ 37:32 A market level of 9498 signals that "people believe that we are on the other side of this," reflecting priced-in recovery or optimism.
▶ 37:44 Natural gas is "over $3" and unchanged in pre-market, notable because prices typically fall closer to $3.20 or under $3 at this time of year.
▶ 38:15 Elevated natural gas prices are potentially being driven by "data center demand," pointing to structural energy demand rather than just seasonal or oil-substitution factors.
▶ 38:22 Gold is up 880 and is treated as a leading indicator: rising gold signals "good times," while falling gold signals "bad times," with the current uptick seen as positive.
▶ 38:38 Silver is up .13 to almost $75, and the speaker highlights its importance as an industrial product, especially for data centers, though they admit they haven't studied silver's supply picture or underpricing enough to take a definitive stance.
▶ 39:11 Copper is noted as having been on the speaker's radar for some time, with aluminum also briefly referenced alongside it.
▶ 39:12 Copper is on the speaker's radar, trading at 634, down from 655 about a week earlier.
▶ 39:23 The speaker states copper "needs to keep coming down," signaling further price declines are desired.
▶ 39:35 Tariff removal is suggested and affirmed as a likely way to help copper prices fall, despite limited mining supply.
▶ 39:41 Dollar remains strong while the yen is weak, with headlines suggesting Japan may need to intervene again to support its currency.
▶ 40:06 The panel expresses strong confidence in Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant, citing his authority, regular talks with foreign bankers, and decades of trading experience in bonds and oil.
▶ 40:46 While the yen remains a legitimate concern, the speaker concludes the U.S. is "lucky to have" Bessant in the Treasury role.
▶ 40:54 Bitcoin is down over $1,300 and has fallen back under $75,000, while Ethereum trades near $2,000, down 2% for the day.
▶ 41:13 The decline is seen as likely a technical back-test or gap-fill rather than a fundamental shift, with Bitcoin acting as a leading indicator for geopolitical deal optimism.
▶ 41:49 A key theory: an anticipated risk-oriented IPO in two weeks is pulling capital out of Bitcoin into cash, with funds potentially coming from trimming gold and silver positions—while liquidity for space investments remains ample.
▶ 42:22 Section begins with an incomplete audio fragment (“it”), offering no substantive market information.
▶ 42:24 Speaker starts the closing-index preview, noting “the Dow up .36” for tomorrow—indicating a modest expected gain, though ambiguous between points and percentage.
▶ 42:24 The transcript cuts off immediately after the Dow reference, so S&P 500 and Nasdaq closing levels are not provided in this section.
▶ 42:29 The S&P 500 and NASDAQ closed with marginal gains, leaving the panel cautious about the market's direction.
▶ 42:45 Jeff frames the macro environment as exciting, citing all-time highs and AI progress, but notes only a few companies—especially Tesla with physical AI and self-driving—are creating clear end-user value.
▶ 43:23 Jeff argues Tesla has a hard-to-reproduce moat in proprietary data and engineering, and while its year-to-date performance is weaker, the stock is technically setting up well with room to run.
▶ 44:02 Tesla may sell or rent access to its Cortex AI supercomputer, a claim the speaker has made for about a week.
▶ 44:22 Tesla could bundle its exclusive real-world driving data with Cortex rentals, offering a uniquely valuable package.
▶ 44:41 Revenue potential is significant, with estimates ranging from $6–8 billion annually up to as much as $21 billion per year.
▶ 44:51 Tesla's FSD/robotaxi capability will become so dominant that governments/companies see it as "unfair"; Tesla will monetize this by offering to "make it fair" for payment, not giving it away for free.
▶ 45:28 Tesla will use a premium "pay-per-view" model (Dana White style), but this only becomes real once Tesla achieves unsupervised FSD and some form of mass robotaxi deployment.
▶ 45:52 The advantage will instantly become a competitive threat to others, forcing Tesla to sell it to governments and companies — a "good problem to have."

Tesla Up on Solid Robotaxi News: When Will Tesla Rent Cortex

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