Why I Just SHORTED SpaceX And ADDED Tesla Stock

Key Points

▶ 0:49 His core short thesis: SpaceX’s cash flow will arrive earlier than expected, and operating income will be bigger and sooner than expected, but the market may not recognize this until 2027; until then, the stock will be valued by peer revenue/operating multiples.
▶ 1:18 Against new comps like Tesla, Anthropic, OpenAI, and Palantir, SpaceX looks overvalued: applying Tesla’s 13x revenue multiple implies a $35 stock, or $70 if SpaceX is twice as good — far below the current $150 price.
▶ 2:57 The float is only 5%, and lock-up unlocks around August 21 and November/December could expand it toward 60%, bringing major selling pressure; he is not shorting shares directly but is selling short monthly $180 calls as a small tactical position.
▶ 6:32 The speaker uses a scenario-based approach: the short is sized to limit near-term risk, so the loss is capped around 120% of the premium if the stock jumps, preserving capital for a larger position if the stock stays flat or falls.
▶ 8:00 The speaker has no specific downside price target—possible bottoms range from $140 down to $50—so they are not betting on a single bottom, and any long-term core accumulation will only begin after November when selling pressure subsides.
▶ 8:42 Upside catalysts won't arrive until the second half of next year, and the plan is to let frustration, FUD, and panic build into that window, then buy at maximum pessimism: “when everyone cries, Joe buys.”
▶ 10:29 The speaker is “heavily, heavily short put” on Tesla but is now getting cautious because the delivery report is unknown and there is likely a sell-the-news effect ahead.
▶ 10:43 He expects Tesla deliveries to be “amazing,” but sees speculation as “over the top,” citing estimates ranging from Troy Teslike’s 466,000 and consensus around 460,000, down to Gary Black’s 420,000 and Future Raza’s 431,000.
▶ 12:26 Technically, Tesla is approaching prior rejection zones at 410–415 and 440, so he expects a possible move to 435–440 this week but warns to “prepare for a drop” as it’s “time for a drop again.”
▶ 13:29 Tesla's broader trend remains down or sideways without "extreme" Cybercab action; deliveries and market recovery alone are not enough to lift the stock.
▶ 14:17 Cybercab deployment is increasingly inevitable and would shift the entire equation: the stock could hit 490–500 "in absolutely no time" within 2-3 days, with a larger repricing if hundreds deploy.
▶ 15:32 The first production Cybercab has been shown — no controls, no steering wheel — signaling the future is happening now; expect deployment possibly within a month or two, and prepare for both a short-term pullback and a later run to all-time highs.
▶ 16:29 The host acknowledges chat backlash to his bearish SpaceX take and pulls up his "SpaceX IPO deck" visuals.
▶ 17:03 He highlights the AI satellite constellation slide, noting SpaceX's "compute AI business" as part of the operation.
▶ 18:03 He clarifies his position, explaining that buying puts isn't really shorting, but selling calls is technically shorting calls.
▶ 18:26 The host confirms there is hard evidence: Tesla bought a large piece of property in Dallas for a robotaxi service center.
▶ 19:20 Tesla appears to be accumulating land and giant parking lots, with charging infrastructure being a core operational need for robotaxis.
▶ 19:40 Tesla also submitted plans for a car wash at the site, though it is not yet built.
▶ 20:05 A viewer asks about the combined stock price after a Tesla/SpaceX merger, but the host does not engage with the hypothetical.
▶ 20:09 The host dismisses the premise, stating "That's not right now the discussion," implying the merger is not currently relevant.
▶ 20:11 He notes any such merger would take time, reinforcing that it is premature and not part of his immediate investment thesis.
▶ 20:30 A viewer suggests a Tesla merger-talk call bull spread (e.g., 400/600 calls) as a possible play; the host agrees Tesla has much upside.
▶ 21:27 The host's default Tesla strategy is to be short puts, partly in-the-money, creating a synthetic long position of at least 100% of his portfolio — noting June was stressful when he was more than 100% long.
▶ 22:04 The host forecasts ~15,000 Cybercabs by year-end, scaling quickly past 1,000 units; if they hit 1,000 by August, over 10,000 by year-end is likely.
▶ 22:51 Viewer Paul Davis asks whether selling short-duration, out-of-the-money covered calls on Tesla is too risky.
▶ 23:14 The host says such a strategy is "not worth it right now," because while Tesla may slide near-term, a sharp upward rally could leave the seller "screwed."
▶ 23:23 The host suggests the tail-risk asymmetry (limited premium vs. unlimited upside loss) makes covered calls unattractive on Tesla despite expected downside.
▶ 23:26 The host gives a non-committal response to a viewer question about the Raptor 4 engine, saying "I don't know" without further speculation.
▶ 23:30 He acknowledges the low microphone volume but says he can't fully fix it because feedback is mixed—some viewers say it's fine.
▶ 23:45 He notes that his live recordings come out slightly lower in volume than his regular recordings, calling it "a little hard to fine-tune this."
▶ 23:47 Host opens mid-thought, noting something is "unclear" and responding to a prior viewer point.
▶ 23:49 Host reads a chat comment saying "Malls are empty at night," then admits at ▶ 23:54 he doesn't understand the context.
▶ 24:02 Host pivots away from the mall remark to check for "Cyber Cap" news, indicating the segment's focus on robotaxi-related updates.
▶ 24:18 European bonds were delayed due to standard legal processing, but the paperwork is now fully assembled and in order.
▶ 24:32 Viewers should contact Sari for the latest details on bond availability.
▶ 24:38 The bonds are hosted on pioneeralpha.org, and the host urges viewers to create an account there, reassuring that the bonds are "definitely happening now."
▶ 24:56 Host reassures Joe that Tesla will be good soon, while noting he owns only a small amount of SpaceX compared to Tesla.
▶ 25:07 Cites “Steven” as an example of disciplined allocation: 1.5% in SpaceX versus 98.5% in Tesla.
▶ 25:20 Host holds 10 SpaceX tracker stocks, deliberately small so they don’t meaningfully affect the portfolio and mainly serve as a tracking tool rather than a core position.
▶ 25:37 Host confirms that on Tuesday, Jeff and Herbert's interview with Lars, Tesla's head of engineering, will be released.
▶ 25:47 The interview is described as "great … for Tesla geeks at least."
▶ 25:52 Lars teased something big on scaling, but the host doubts it will be a major catalyst; he suggests it could be an Optimus buildout, which he believes Wall Street won't care about.
▶ 26:05 The host notes that the situation around Tesla holds interest to Wall Street.
▶ 26:16 The host advises buying Tesla shares now, saying that even if the stock drops to $410, "who cares?" because it creates an opportunity to buy more.
▶ 26:24 He emphasizes that minor near-term moves don't matter and concludes "now is the time to load up on Tesla."
▶ 26:24 Viewer Janice asks whether Tesla needs service centers in cities before Cyber Cab launch; host says assuming they're missing is unwarranted since Tesla's service center locations are hard to track.
▶ 26:41 Service centers are not a bottleneck—host says Tesla could set them up "within two weeks from nothing if needed," so they're not an obstacle or sign of launch readiness.
▶ 26:58 Bottom line: logistical concerns like service centers are minor; "now is the time to load up on Tesla."
▶ 27:21 The host rejects covered puts, calling the term confusing and noting they're for short funds, not his approach.
▶ 27:42 He treats every option as a purely synthetic, naked trade: "For me it's always naked."
▶ 27:55 Even far-out spreads are considered effectively naked and can still lose a lot of money if the trade goes against him.
▶ 28:11 Viewer asks for a recap of the video's title: "Why I Just SHORTED SpaceX And ADDED Tesla Stock."
▶ 28:15 Host explains he is shorting SpaceX using out-of-the-money (OTM) naked call spreads, citing a bearish six-month outlook on SpaceX's stock price.
▶ 28:36 Host is strategically doubling down on Tesla, taking an increased bullish long position in contrast to the SpaceX short.
▶ 28:41 The host is not related to Mark Wahlberg, but once had an office next to Wahlberg’s in Santa Monica.
▶ 28:48 He jokes that he is “some guy from Africa.”
▶ 28:56 The host says South Africa is an interesting market for his channel, with a relatively high number of viewers from there.
▶ 29:04 A viewer from South Africa reveals they have a huge SpaceX position.
▶ 29:07 The viewer expresses worry, linking their concern to the host's earlier bearish commentary on SpaceX.
▶ 29:09 The host begins a measured response (“Well...”), setting up a nuanced answer that is cut off.
▶ 29:16 On a two-year horizon, SpaceX is likely a good investment with sound fundamentals.
▶ 29:18 The speaker has very high conviction that SpaceX will decline tactically from current levels through November.
▶ 29:18 Despite the favorable long-term picture, a near-term short position is attractive due to the expected pullback.
▶ 29:28 Richard, a retired sound engineer, offers to diagnose and fix the host's audio issue for free.
▶ 29:45 The host expresses frustration with the sound problems, explaining that streaming via Riverside into X and YouTube causes conflicting viewer reports (too low vs. fine).
▶ 30:08 The host asks Richard to contact him on X (Twitter) and thanks him for the offer.
▶ 30:10 Anthony values viewer tips but deliberately keeps his tip amounts small to save capital for a bigger opportunity.
▶ 30:14 He is positioning to “buy heavy” if SpaceX dives, with $100 as his approximate target for a buying opportunity—though he admits the exact price is uncertain.
▶ 30:37 He believes a decline is inevitable unless SpaceX management surprises everyone, so he is waiting for a meaningful pullback rather than chasing the current price.
▶ 30:50 The host is currently based in Europe.
▶ 30:53 He previously lived in the US for a very long time.
▶ 30:57 He moved back to Europe in 2025.
▶ 31:02 Redneck plans to sell a put on SpaceX at a $135 strike for one month, rolling the trade until assigned, using $23,000 from Roth accounts.
▶ 31:21 The host calls it an "interesting" and "smart plan" only if the goal is actually owning SpaceX and the $135 strike is acceptable, noting the uncertainty of when or how much SpaceX may drop.
▶ 31:53 If Redneck collects about $10 per share in premium, his effective purchase price drops to $125 — getting paid to wait while still buying below the strike if assigned.
▶ 32:00 Jeff Jones Jr. describes a complex layered Tesla options strategy using long call LEAPS, selling calls on run-ups, taking short shares upon assignment, and then selling covered puts.
▶ 32:19 The host admits the strategy is "very complicated" and "breaks my brain," but says it is "probably smart."
▶ 32:32 Success depends heavily on timing market movements, especially knowing when to sell calls during run-ups.
▶ 32:34 Bitcoin's $60,000 level remains a key support/barrier, even after a brief dip to around $58,500.
▶ 32:34 MicroStrategy’s drop was “totally panicked oversold,” not a sign of fundamental problems.
▶ 32:34 The current bounce confirms the selloff was sentiment-driven, and MicroStrategy is recovering in line with Bitcoin.
▶ 33:02 Host confirms the audio issue is resolved after a brief interruption.
▶ 33:06 Host humorously plays along with a viewer joke that his accent is "breaking the microphone."
▶ 33:22 Host sends a warm "Cheers to you all" greeting to South African viewers.
▶ 33:33 Anthony predicts SpaceX will "settle around 175 to 185 for a while," establishing a near-term trading range.
▶ 33:51 He defends his criticism of SpaceX, saying he's "telling you what is inevitable" and plans to "load up on the stock" when the time is right.
▶ 33:55 He reaffirms SpaceX is "a great stock" and that buyers at current levels will "probably be happy" in about three years, balancing short-term caution with long-term optimism.
▶ 34:07 The host confirms that shorting SpaceX, if executed properly, can add multiple percentage points to overall performance without taking on too much risk.
▶ 34:07 The key advantage is access to sufficient liquidity and shortable shares, which gives the host an edge over smaller retail participants like Boba.
▶ 34:07 The short position is framed as a calculated, well-sized strategy rather than a speculative or reckless bet, with a favorable risk-reward balance.
▶ 34:27 Host is not concerned about MicroStrategy, seeing it as raising fresh dollars to pay old investors — a familiar pattern.
▶ 34:34 MicroStrategy bought back a convertible note early at a discount, which the host calls a “rational procedure.”
▶ 34:44 MicroStrategy is explicitly distinguished from Tesla and SpaceX, implying different investment merit.
▶ 34:46 MicroStrategy is not like Tesla or SpaceX; it is not a conventional business, but rather "just a bet on Bitcoin."
▶ 34:53 Its value depends entirely on the investor's Bitcoin outlook: if you're bullish on Bitcoin and understand MicroStrategy, it can be a useful vehicle.
▶ 34:55 The segment frames MicroStrategy as a Bitcoin proxy: attractiveness hinges on one's Bitcoin thesis and understanding of the company's structure.
▶ 35:01 A viewer sarcastically notes that people bragged about being allowed to buy SpaceX shares, but now “everyone will have a second chance” — implying the original excitement was overhyped.
▶ 35:01 The key takeaway is that SpaceX shares will likely become available again at a lower price, so rushing to buy was premature.
▶ 35:01 The comment serves as a reality check: patience is the smarter play, with another entry point expected rather than treating the first allocation as a rare privilege.
▶ 35:16 A viewer notes Anduril is getting into rapidly deployed military-only data centers called “Menace”; the host hadn’t heard this and confirms Anduril is still private and needs an IPO.
▶ 35:38 The host would choose Anduril over Palantir among defense-related companies, basing this on gut feeling and ethics rather than fundamentals.
▶ 35:51 He doesn’t fully trust Palantir because its leadership talks too aggressively, creating market trust issues, though he still acknowledges it’s a good business and prefers Anduril’s founder personally.
▶ 36:13 The host checks noise reduction and opens the full settings menu to troubleshoot the audio problem.
▶ 36:23 The host is confused because they are using the exact same settings as for normal recordings, which are "totally fine," suggesting an intermittent or environment-related issue.
▶ 36:40 The host states the audio is "set" but the issue remains unexplained, noting that this is normally not a problem.
▶ 36:50 A viewer asks how Tesla will go up and to what level short term, framed as the “trillion dollar question.”
▶ 37:00 The host sees upcoming delivery numbers as a binary event: either a “sell the news” dip or a further rally if numbers are hot.
[37:08–37:17] He is not making a major bet on tomorrow’s delivery report; instead, July offers a much stronger catalyst, with an “exponentially higher chance” tied to Cybercab deployment.
▶ 37:21 The viewer question frames "flop" as a major accident or catastrophic failure.
▶ 37:29 Host's core thesis: the Cybercab is "a done deal" and will scale to tens of millions of units.
▶ 37:35 The only real uncertainty is execution: how cleanly it rolls out, how fast it scales, and whether growth is linear or marked by hiccups — not whether it succeeds.
▶ 37:50 The speaker cites a lowest trade price of $100 as the reference point for a SpaceX base case.
▶ 38:07 If a Q4 market crash or 10–20% correction combines with heavy share supply, SpaceX could fall to $50 — and there is "just no floor."
▶ 38:16 Applying standard valuation frameworks or comparing to peers like Palantir, OpenAI, or Tesla, SpaceX looks "toast" under normal revenue or operating income multiples.
▶ 38:38 Viewer Luciano highlights another Tesla crash in the news, arguing the media singles out Tesla in crash reporting.
▶ 38:42 Claim that Tesla is the only car brand named when involved in an accident.
▶ 38:46 Host agrees, adding that no one paid attention to that specific crash because it was "too ridiculous."
▶ 38:49 Host is cautious on Tesla's momentum, noting the stock has run up too much and is prone to pullbacks after sharp rallies.
▶ 39:06 Expected near-term path: Tesla could flatten out and pull back to $410, or run to $440 then pull back to $420–$415; a drop to $400 would be "very annoying."
▶ 39:35 Tomorrow's deliveries report is the key catalyst: a blowout could push Tesla to $440, but the stock would likely deflate afterward unless the Cybercab provides a fresh boost.
▶ 40:03 If Tesla reaches ~$480, it could make a final push, but after that "we're done" — meaning the rally is likely exhausted.
▶ 40:14 After the delivery boost plays out, Tesla is expected to stop going up and start "just going down," unless the Cyber Cap (Cybercab) catalyst arrives in time.
▶ 40:22 The host frames this as the "trade setup," with the big question being whether Cyber Cap changes the expected post-delivery decline.
▶ 40:38 The host keeps a concentrated portfolio (Nvidia, SpaceX, Tesla, MicroStrategy) and does not invest in cybersecurity stocks.
▶ 41:03 As Micron drops, the host is much more interested in buying it, calling it very undervalued on every metric.
▶ 41:20 He believes Nvidia will rally soon and that investor fatigue with semiconductors and RAM is short-lived.
▶ 41:33 Options expiring soon: markets are closed now but open tomorrow, so there is still time to manage positions.
▶ 41:49 Selling Tesla shares for a home down payment (3.5% vs 10%) is a personal finance question, not a Tesla investing call.
▶ 42:01 Renting out Tesla data centers is unlikely to be a major business—they're much smaller than SpaceX's and Tesla needs them for robotics.
▶ 42:34 The host rejects the idea that Cyber Cap expansion will happen around July 4th, saying Tesla rolls out products step by step when ready, not around holidays or events.
▶ 42:52 The host disagrees with a viewer’s interpretation of the Herbert/Muravi interview, arguing it was not hinting at a big Cyber product launch after July 4th.
▶ 43:03 Muravi’s “surprise about growth and scale” likely referred to manufacturing buildout at the Austin campus, not an imminent Cyber Cap rollout.
▶ 43:17 Viewer asks whether Optimus will dominate or just be one of many; host predicts "total domination."
▶ 43:29 The key isn't having the best robot or blowing minds—it's "the machine that builds the machine."
▶ 43:43 Without the factory and supply chains to back up the best robot, "you're screwed" — the manufacturing moat is decisive.
▶ 43:52 Viewer Anthony warns Joe that he is becoming "somewhat compulsive on the options," advising him to dial it back, set alerts for better entries, and recognize that you don't always need to make a trade.
▶ 44:07 Joe pushes back, saying he has it "under control" and that "chilling is not good for me," but admits June was "a little too aggressive" and emphasizes the real solution is "very precise risk sizing" rather than avoiding trades.
▶ 44:36 Viewer Breman says they need Tesla to stay low for a month and 12 stocks to reach their target, which Joe approves of with a brief "Yes. Very good."
▶ 44:48 Reiterates his strategy to become more short SpaceX.
▶ 44:55 The SpaceX short is still a small position, expressed via one-month calls around the 180 strike.
▶ 44:59 If the trade moves against him, he views it as an opportunity to double down, expecting a bearish catalyst starting in August.
▶ 45:05 Expects SpaceX's current elevated price to be unsustainable, seeing "no chance of SpaceX keeping it up here."
▶ 45:08 If SpaceX slides down, he's fine with it: he makes a little money on his short but misses out on some opportunities.
▶ 45:14 If SpaceX moves against him, he'd actually like it because it "sets me up for more" — a better setup for a larger position.
▶ 45:18 The speaker is setting up for a further Tesla analysis, indicating a deliberate strategic setup.
▶ 45:21 Tesla remains "tricky" to navigate, reflecting near-term uncertainty.
▶ 45:26 Despite that, Tesla is "strategically very optimistic" — a good long-term hold if you don't try to squeeze out too much alpha; an "easy win" with big potential.
▶ 45:33 The host teases an upcoming opinion piece tied to a "potentially very big win."
▶ 45:42 A new video on Citizen Vigilante will be released within 24 hours, with more commentary on AI coming Thursday.
▶ 46:00 A Germany video is coming to provide a very important political update on Europe.

Why I Just SHORTED SpaceX And ADDED Tesla Stock

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