URGENT How To Buy The SpaceX IPO SPCX 🚨 FINAL Day 1 Price Prediction ‼️

This video presents a bullish analysis of a record-breaking, retail-driven SpaceX IPO, predicting the stock will close 30% or higher within 24–48 hours due to an extremely tight initial float of only 4.2% of shares. The host details a staggered lockup schedule, with the next major unlock around August tied to Q2 earnings and a 30% price trigger that could release 30% of shares—seven times the day-one float—creating significant supply pressure. He argues limited supply and massive demand should push prices up initially, but warns retail investors that platform allocation rules, restricted share sales, and unlock events pose serious risks. The speaker also forecasts SpaceX becoming the largest company in the world and predicts Tesla will merge into SpaceX by 2027, citing Elon Musk's control. Finally, he estimates a realistic IPO valuation range of roughly $1.5–$3 trillion based on Polymarket odds, with $2–$2.5 trillion as the market's median expectation.

• ▶ 0:00 This is framed as a record-breaking retail-driven SpaceX IPO, with the host promising a day-one closing price prediction and noting retail investors are actively involved.
• ▶ 1:13 SpaceX is reportedly seeking inclusion in the NASDAQ and S&P 500, which could trigger automatic index-fund buying and upward price pressure; a possible pair trade is also suggested.
• ▶ 4:11 The host predicts SpaceX will end 30% or higher from the IPO price within 24–48 hours, citing the offering contract structure and the lockup detail that only 4.2% of shares are released on day one.
• ▶ 4:39 SpaceX is unlocking 4.20% of overall shares, tying the number to a deliberate joke about Elon Musk.
• ▶ 4:53 The next major unlock event to watch is the "first cliff" tied to Q2 earnings; Elon Musk's personal shares stay locked for 366 days.
• ▶ 5:05 Fidelity cut its SpaceX IPO eligibility requirement by 99%, dropping the threshold from about $500,000 to just $2,000.
• ▶ 5:52 Stockmo introduces himself and pitches his credentials, including national championships, Senate floor recognition, and former financial adviser experience, as "the best by far" SpaceX analyst.
• ▶ 6:32 He declares he is "absolutely pro SpaceX" and predicts it will become the largest company in the United States and the world through vertical integration.
• ▶ 6:52 He predicts Tesla will be merged into SpaceX within roughly 36 months, with 2027 as the likely announcement year, citing Elon Musk's voting power at Tesla (~20%) versus his dominance at SpaceX.
• ▶ 7:53 SpaceX's bull case centers on multiple growth drivers: Optimus robots, celestial mining, rockets, Starlink, and AI, which the speaker fully endorses and has covered in prior videos.
• ▶ 8:17 The speaker warns retail investors that the IPO lockup is not a retail-friendly chance to buy more shares, but a threat—markets could be flooded with supply once the lockup expires.
• ▶ 8:48 Explains the core supply/demand dynamic: limited supply plus massive demand pushes prices higher, but an increase in supply at equilibrium would shift that dynamic and pressure the price.

• [8:58–9:04] The final price of SpaceX and EchoStar will be set by the supply-demand equilibrium, and the speaker will reveal a predicted price for both by the end of the video.

• [9:08–9:24] Shares unlock on the second trading day after SpaceX’s first public earnings report; this creates a one-day trading window before insiders can sell.

• [9:24–9:40] The one-day post-earnings window is likely to be highly volatile, with the event estimated around August; the speaker will provide updates to stay ahead of the news.

• ▶ 9:51 Shares unlock if the stock trades 30% above IPO price for five out of 10 days before Q2 earnings.
• ▶ 10:01 The 10-day period must be consecutive days.
• ▶ 10:08 If triggered, an additional 10% of shares unlock, bringing total unlocked shares to 30%.
• ▶ 10:11 Only 4.2% of shares are released on day one, creating a small initial float.
• ▶ 10:20 The August unlock after Q2 earnings is conditional on the stock trading 30% higher, which the speaker believes will happen.
• ▶ 10:38 August's unlock is 30% of shares — seven times the day-one float — creating significant potential downward pressure, though unlocked shares don't automatically get sold.
• ▶ 11:12 Early investors are expected to sell a significant portion after the IPO to "de-risk," creating selling pressure.
• ▶ 11:25 Elon Musk cannot sell his shares for 366 days and reportedly wants to combine Tesla with SpaceX, with an announcement expected around 2027.
• ▶ 11:44 The speaker plans to build a very large position slowly but surely, revealing the method for SpaceX exposure later in the video.
• ▶ 11:55 After the IPO, SpaceX shares release on a staggered schedule at 70, 90, 105, 120, and 135 days, with each release nearly double the day-one amount and adding ongoing selling pressure.
• ▶ 12:19 The largest unlock is in August, described as “huge,” while later releases are expected to be less volatile but still push the stock down.
• ▶ 12:31 Around 90 days after a Q3 filing, a conditional 28% release could occur if trading meets “five days out of 10”; if not, remaining shares fall back to the standard 180-day lockup from June 12th.
• ▶ 12:51 Standard lockup shares are free to trade, but Elon Musk and major investors are locked up for 366 days with no early-release exceptions.
• ▶ 12:54 Founder and key institutional holders cannot sell for a full year, unlike ordinary shares which become tradable after the standard lockup.
• ▶ 13:09 Every IPO platform (Fidelity, Robinhood, Charles Schwab) has its own holding-period rules; violating them can lead to IPO bans ranging from 3-6 months to permanent exclusion.
• ▶ 13:42 Review your trading platform's specific rules, especially if you received allocated shares (e.g., at $135) and want to sell at a higher price like $160.
• ▶ 13:57 Open market buyers of SpaceX shares have more flexibility, but those using platform allocations must follow platform-specific restrictions.
• ▶ 14:01 Be mindful of Pattern Day Trading (PDT) rules if buying and selling on the same day; join the host's Discord with thousands of members for guidance.
• ▶ 14:38 Polymarket traders heavily price out a sub-$1.5T SpaceX IPO closing valuation, with 99.5% "no" on under $1T and 97.5% "no" on $1–$1.5T.
• ▶ 15:11 The first realistic bucket is $1.5–$2T, but the market's median expectation is $2–$2.5T, and combining $1.5–$2.5T gives roughly 75% cumulative odds.
• ▶ 15:22 The presenter sees the realistic range as about $1.5–$3T, with odds of going much higher being "real, real slim."
• ▶ 16:16 Perpetual SpaceX contracts are traded globally but are not legal in the U.S.; they are synthetic instruments with no ownership rights, simply tracking the price of a SpaceX share.
• ▶ 16:57 The perpetual contract is currently trading at $17,121 per share on exchanges like Binance via TradingView, offering an off-exchange signal ahead of the IPO.
• ▶ 17:22 Comparing that perpetual price to a hypothetical $135 IPO entry, the speaker concludes the IPO will likely gravitate toward the much higher perpetual pricing when it launches Friday.
• ▶ 17:47 SpaceX perpetual contract trades at $171.41, about 26% above the $135 IPO price.
• ▶ 18:44 That perpetual price implies a $2.22 trillion market cap — inside Polymarket’s $2-2.5 trillion range at ▶ 18:55.
• ▶ 18:55 Retail demand is seen as the key driver, which is why Elon Musk reserved 30% of the offering for retail investors.
• ▶ 19:28 The speaker starts calculating the SpaceX IPO perpetual gain, expecting it around 20-something percent.
• ▶ 19:38 Current price of 171 is compared to the earlier reference of 135, confirming the original base price.
• ▶ 19:49 The calculation resolves to a +26.6% gain, meaningfully above the initial 20% estimate.
• ▶ 19:53 Perpetual contract pricing is the key real-time signal, already pricing in a meaningful gain for SpaceX stock.
• ▶ 19:55 Elon wants the SpaceX IPO to rise above 30% — not a strict requirement, but desirable because it unlocks an additional 10%.
• ▶ 20:07 The 30% threshold was deliberately set at a level the company/insiders believe the IPO will surpass.
• ▶ 20:18 The SpaceX perpetual is priced at $171, implying a ~$2.22T valuation, while Polymarket bettors expect a $2–2.5T market cap.
• ▶ 20:41 A normal tech IPO pop is 20–30%, but SpaceX’s limited share supply and historic scale could drive much stronger demand.
• ▶ 20:51 Retail investors will "dive at it" given Elon Musk's involvement, so upward pressure is unlikely to fizzle.
• ▶ 21:17 The primary way to take advantage is getting IPO shares at $135, with the market already pricing in upside so buyers could benefit immediately if it moves higher.
• ▶ 21:29 Lock-up risk is not a concern until after the second day of trading following the company's initial Q2 earnings report in August.
• ▶ 21:08 The key practical focus is identifying specific ways to position for the SpaceX IPO if you believe in the opportunity.
• ▶ 21:41 The only real risks are volatility and valuation risk, but valuation concerns are dismissed as already addressed.
• ▶ 21:50 Analysts who undervalue SpaceX also missed Tesla, Amazon, and Netflix, showing a poor track record.
• ▶ 22:21 SpaceX’s monopoly position in space, Starlink, AI, and rockets means analysts are absolutely underestimating its valuation.
• ▶ 22:39 The speaker believes the market is underestimating SpaceX's valuation, while Goldman Sachs is bullish on its big potential.
• ▶ 22:55 Echoar is introduced as a personal holding and an alternative way to play the anticipated SpaceX IPO.
• ▶ 23:11 Echoar's major bandwidth deal with SpaceX is highlighted as massive, with the stock spiking after the announcement.
• ▶ 23:57 Echoar holds roughly 3% ownership in SpaceX, with estimates ranging between 2% and 3% depending on final share counts.
• ▶ 24:05 The SpaceX IPO is priced at $135 per share, implying an initial market valuation of roughly $1.75–1.77 trillion.
• ▶ 25:07 If SpaceX hits $175 (near current perpetuals around $171), Echoar’s underlying SpaceX assets alone would imply a share price of over $200.
• ▶ 25:33 EchoStar is a holding company, not SpaceX itself, so a 10–15% holding-company discount applies to its implied $200+ per share value.
• ▶ 25:45 The speaker leans toward the higher 15% discount because EchoStar recently defaulted on an interest payment, triggering a 30-day grace period and adding pressure on the stock.
• ▶ 26:04 After the 15% discount, the adjusted fair value is roughly $174 per share, implying about 30% upside if SpaceX reaches $170–$175 per share.
• ▶ 26:26 Underlying core businesses—Dish TV, Sling, Boost Mobile, and the Starlink direct-to-cell alliance—plus the EchoStar Capital Division support the baseline valuation, though remaining issues persist.
• ▶ 26:43 SpaceX can't declare victory immediately on IPO day—there is a formal price discovery process before the stock officially trades.
• ▶ 27:22 The day-one forecast relies on Wall Street's "indicative match" price discovery mechanism, based on extensive historical research.
• ▶ 27:28 He expects a conservative initial range of $150–$160, noting perpetuals and Polymarket already price SpaceX around $171, with an expected open move ~10–15–20% higher.
• ▶ 27:48 SpaceX opens for public trading midday and immediately pops, driving an intraday retail squeeze into the $162–$168 range.
• ▶ 28:07 FOMO-fueled retail momentum peaks, pushing the day-one price prediction to $180–$185 before institutions step in.
• ▶ 28:14 Institutions trigger a reset via profit-taking and underwriter stabilization, pulling the stock back down to $165–$172 by the closing bell.
• ▶ 28:32 The speaker had already completed his own fair-value analysis for day-one SpaceX trading, based on technicals, supply and demand, arriving at a range of $165–$172 per share.
• ▶ 29:02 Cross-checking external data, he found SpaceX perpetuals priced at 171.96, landing almost exactly inside his projected range.
• ▶ 29:13 The close match "blew him away" and, as an advanced math teacher, confirmed his technical fair-value calculation as solid and spot-on, reinforcing his day-one price forecast.
• ▶ 29:25 Market is already pricing the stock in the expected 165–172 range, with the speaker's "conservative finish" at the high end of that range.
• ▶ 29:36 The speaker acknowledges the stock could go higher than the conservative estimate, predicting a 30%+ close for roughly 5 days during the first week.
• ▶ 29:38 That 30%+ upside momentum could extend into the first two weeks / first 10 trading days, suggesting a strong early breakout above the initial range.
• ▶ 29:50 Hypothetical SpaceX IPO at $165–$172, with Echoar’s ~3% stake implies an asset value of roughly $59–$62 billion.
• ▶ 30:08 After a holding-company discount, the implied SATS price is $176–$185 “right out of the gate” on pure asset value.
• ▶ 30:36 Due to the interest-payment default and 30-day grace period, the speaker’s more realistic day-one close is $135–$145 per share.
• ▶ 30:48 The speaker asks viewers to like the video, noting institutions will likely adopt his analysis without credit.
• ▶ 31:01 He predicts institutional buyers may drive SATs higher after running the numbers, citing limited downside and real value.
• ▶ 31:15 In a worst-case SpaceX IPO failure, SATs could drop 50% and Echoar would be hit hard, so he warns of that downside upfront.
• ▶ 31:47 Expects Friday's SpaceX IPO to be "the wildest thing you've ever seen," driven by an extremely tight float of only ~4.2% of shares being offered to the public.
• ▶ 32:30 Day-one perpetual pricing of ~207.92 is roughly 50% higher than the expected IPO price of $135, and after running to the 220s, it sold off to ~160 but never broke below $135, signaling building buying pressure.
• ▶ 33:37 The biggest dilemma will be for IPO allocators: if shares quickly run to $170–$200, investors need clear rules on whether to sell early or hold.

• ▶ 0:00 SpaceX IPO Hype and Lockup Primer (0:00 - 4:45) - - Introduces the record-breaking IPO, retail opportunity, community offer, and early day-one pricing and lockup discussion.
• ▶ 4:45 Lockup Details, Bull Case, and Trading Rules (4:45 - 14:14) - - Breaks down SpaceX share unlock conditions, the pro-SpaceX bull thesis, and IPO trading rules.
• ▶ 14:14 Polymarket Odds, Perpetuals, and the 30% Unlock Trigger (14:14 - 22:44) - - Covers Polymarket market-cap predictions, perpetual pricing, implied valuation, the 30% trigger, and participation risks.
• ▶ 22:44 Echoar/SATS Alternative Play, Valuation, and Day-One Price Prediction (22:44 - 31:42) - - Computes Echoar's value from its SpaceX stake, applies a holding-company discount, and predicts day-one price levels.
• ▶ 31:42 Final "Wildest IPO Ever" Prediction (31:42 - 35:00) - - Wraps up with the IPO setup and a wildest-IPO-ever prediction.