Tesla Shocks the Experts in New Study; More SpaceX Valuations Analyzed

The video highlights a major sentiment shift toward Tesla, featuring an analyst upgrade from Sell to Hold, record sales in Korea and Australia, and a celebrity endorsement of its full-self-driving as “way better than most beginners.” In contrast, SpaceX suffers a setback as S&P Dow Jones rejects fast-track index inclusion, blocking billions in passive fund buying despite its huge $28.5 trillion total addressable market and ambitious long-term growth projections from bulls like Ron Baron. The show also covers a durability study showing Tesla outperforming many legacy automakers, then pivots to macro commentary dismissing oil shortage fears, expecting cooler-than-consensus CPI, and monitoring US fiscal deficits. Finally, it recaps market action: Tesla up slightly overnight, yields at 4.57%, oil jumping on Iran missile strikes, and bitcoin rebounding above $60K.

• ▶ 0:42 A famous South Korean actor praised Tesla FSD after testing it in his Model S Plaid, saying it "drives way better than most beginners" and feels like a 3-5 year driver; the host ties this to "off the charts" Korea sales and Model Y being the #1 car in Korea and Australia.
• ▶ 1:29 URST analyst Steven Lignau upgraded Tesla from "Sell" to "Hold," citing rising operating margins, maxed-out factory utilization, and explicitly pricing in Cybercab and Semi series production this year.
• ▶ 2:06 The host stresses the "narrative shift" in the analyst's upgrade matters more than any specific price target, signaling a turning point in sentiment.
• ▶ 2:19 S&P Dow Jones Indices ruled that SpaceX will not get accelerated access to the S&P 500, denying potential billions in passive investment fund buying.
• ▶ 4:06 After a month-long consultation, the S&P rejected proposed rule changes that would have shortened the IPO seasoning period, waived the 10% public float requirement, and dropped profitability screens—changes that would have accommodated SpaceX's ~3% float and lack of profitability.
• ▶ 5:43 Fast-track inclusion would have triggered about $14 billion in passive fund buying for SpaceX (with OpenAI at $8B+ and Anthropic at $4.6B), driven by $7.5 trillion in S&P 500-tracking passive funds.
• ▶ 6:24 Unlike the S&P, NASDAQ and the Russell Top 500 have already adopted fast-track IPO inclusion rules (15 trading days and 5 trading days, respectively), making the S&P's denial notably conservative.
• ▶ 8:42 SpaceX’s IPO filing puts its total addressable market at $28.5 trillion, with the AI unit alone accounting for $26 trillion — but TAM is not a revenue forecast, and the company would be happy with ~25% share in some markets.
• ▶ 9:37 Aswath Damodaran’s more conservative valuation splits SpaceX into three segments and finds xAI furthest from profitability; he still warns that even if you’re “on the right side of value,” the stock’s momentum can “stomp you.”
• ▶ 10:41 Ron Baron projects Starlink will grow from 15 million subscribers by end of 2026 to 300 million by 2036 — roughly the size of Verizon, AT&T, and T-Mobile combined — implying ~$500B annual revenue that, by simple math, means the current IPO valuation could be fully accounted for by Starlink alone.
• ▶ 13:43 A new durability study of over 174 million vehicles ranks brands by likelihood of reaching 250,000 miles, with Tesla outperforming many established automakers.
• ▶ 14:04 Kirk is surprised Volvo only ranked third in the luxury category, despite being his personal pick for longest-lasting brand.
• ▶ 14:33 He asks viewers to subscribe and hit the notification bell to stay alerted to new videos, noting subscribing alone doesn't help the algorithm.
• ▶ 14:51 Iranian and Russian crude discounts in China signal that the oil "shortage problem is way overblown," as the speaker argues weak Chinese demand and workarounds undermine tightness narratives.
• ▶ 18:07 The speaker disagrees with consensus on CPI, expecting both monthly headline and year-over-year CPI to come in lower — possibly well below 3.8% — versus consensus calling for 4.2% YoY.
• ▶ 19:10 The speaker emphasizes watching the fiscal-year-to-date US budget trend rather than monthly numbers, to assess whether the Trump administration is actually cutting spending toward ~5% of GDP deficits versus ~7% under Biden.
• ▶ 21:03 Tesla is up about 1% to $395 in overnight trading, while bond yields rose to 4.57%; the host sees yields eventually going under 4% and calls current levels "okay."
• ▶ 22:01 Oil jumped $3+ on Iran firing missiles at Israel, gold/silver are down, and the dollar hit a two-month high—but the host dismisses Fed rate-hike bets for June or July.
• ▶ 23:11 Bitcoin rebounded above $60K to $62,988, Ethereum surged 8% to $1,680, and pre-market futures are mixed; the host also outlines the new daily show schedule with morning guests and the main show at 4:00–5:30 PM.

• ▶ 0:02 Opening and Tesla Ming (0:02 - 2:12) - Introduction and agenda, plus Tesla Ming: South Korean actor's FSD praise and URST upgrade to Hold.
• ▶ 2:12 SpaceX IPO and Index Rules (2:12 - 8:42) - SpaceX IPO/S&P 500 fast-track rejection, index rule changes, passive fund impact, and early valuation context.
• ▶ 8:42 SpaceX Valuation and Starlink (8:42 - 13:43) - SpaceX IPO TAM, Tesla/SpaceX market context, Damodaran valuation, Baron's Starlink outlook, Starlink challenges/FSD comparison.
• ▶ 13:43 Vehicle Study and Channel Note (13:43 - 14:51) - 250,000-mile vehicle longevity study and Randy Kirk's channel reminder.
• ▶ 14:51 Oil Discounts and Economic Data Preview (14:51 - 21:03) - Iranian/Russian crude discounts in China and the week's US data: NFIB, CPI, federal budget, jobless claims, PPI, and consumer sentiment.
• ▶ 21:03 Markets and Show Schedule (21:03 - 26:55) - Tesla overnight, bonds, oil/commodities, Bitcoin, market update, recommended videos, and show schedule.