Buying Every Share NOW of SPACEX 🚨 IT IS NOT DONE ‼️

The video argues that SpaceX's post-IPO price rally is far from over, with the upcoming NASDAQ 100 inclusion triggering up to $20 billion in forced buying from index funds and ETFs—executed at the close on July 2 due to the July 3 holiday—which institutions will exploit by accumulating shares early and selling into the retail-driven demand wave. However, the host warns that the real risk arrives after July 6, when ETF buying pressure vanishes and massive lockup expirations release roughly 93% of locked-up shares by mid-November, creating sustained downward pressure. Despite being extremely bullish on SpaceX's long-term moat, space data centers, and Tesla synergy, he is deliberately waiting to begin serious dollar-cost averaging until mid-December, betting the stock dips substantially before recovering. His near-term technical trade targets a mean price around $228–$235, offering roughly a 3:1 reward-to-risk ratio on a leveraged position, while he acknowledges a potential 14% loss if the stock breaks below $180.

• ▶ 0:00 The SpaceX price move is “not done” and the NASDAQ 100 inclusion is a major catalyst, triggering mandatory buying of up to $20 billion from index-tracking funds/ETFs.
• ▶ 0:32 Most retail investors misunderstand the July 6 timeline — the actual buying process is more complex, and institutions are the ones selling into ETFs, making retail “pay the price” until now.
• ▶ 3:32 He deliberately buys on big red days because institutions are “slobbering like a pug dog” needing to buy for inclusion day, while retail investors don’t understand how the forced buying works.
• ▶ 5:36 The first major lockup expiration releases 30% of locked-up shares around August 11th, followed by 7% tranches every ~15 days, totaling 93% of locked-up shares available by mid-November.
• ▶ 8:20 Combined with the 4.2% IPO float, roughly 97% of total shares become available by mid-November, with the final 2–3% unlocking around December 9th, creating massive selling pressure.
• ▶ 9:15 The host plans to delay his real dollar-cost averaging until December 15th, after the bulk of lockup pressure passes, then buy daily or weekly "forever" betting on SpaceX and Elon Musk.
• ▶ 11:20 SpaceX joins the NASDAQ 100 on July 6, but the real forced buying happens at the close on July 2 — the previous market day — because of the July 3 market holiday.
• ▶ 13:05 Passive ETFs buy at the final second to avoid tracking error, using market-on-close orders executed through the NASDAQ closing cross, which sets a single closing price.
• ▶ 15:25 Institutions accumulate SpaceX shares days/weeks ahead and sell into the ETF demand wave; the host is positioning for roughly a 5% gain by selling into this event.
• ▶ 17:24 After July 6th, the heavy institutional ETF-related buying pressure disappears, causing the price to reverse and drift downward as institutions slowly sell off excess shares.
• ▶ 18:49 The long-term bull thesis rests on SpaceX's massive moat (space data centers, compute, Gigasat factory) and Tesla synergy, which the speaker believes will eventually form "the largest company in history."
• ▶ 20:04 Despite long-term bullishness, the speaker is not bullish until December and would consider a put/short position in the $401 area on July 2nd.
• ▶ 20:31 SpaceX price prediction is framed as a statistical probability using a 95% confidence interval, with major selling pressure expected from RSU vesting and concentration risk as employees cash out after the IPO.
• ▶ 22:29 The July 1st 95% confidence interval is $176–$280, with a mean target of $228; the stock closed at $191 on the day of the video.
• ▶ 24:49 For July 2nd, the 95% confidence interval widens to $180–$290, with a mean of $235, and averaging both mean targets gives a central expectation of $231.50.
• ▶ 27:49 The speaker confirms he has started buying the position, emphasizing this is a technicals-based trade, not fundamentals.
• ▶ 29:02 Downside protection: if price drops below $180, he faces roughly a 14% loss on his 2x leveraged play, but he is DCAing in rather than setting a fixed stop.
• ▶ 30:10 Upside target is ~228–235, an ~20% underlying gain (~40% with leverage), framing the trade as a ~3:1 reward-to-risk ratio.

• ▶ 0:00 Introduction and Market Setup (0:00 - 4:42) - - Introduces the SpaceX/NASDAQ 100 opportunity, his track record, and current price-action strategy.
• ▶ 4:42 Lockup Expirations and Accumulation Plan (4:42 - 10:36) - - Walks through SpaceX lockup expirations, institutional quiet buying, and the dollar-cost averaging plan into December.
• ▶ 10:36 Index Inclusion Mechanics and Passive ETF Flows (10:36 - 17:24) - - Explains Russell/NASDAQ 100 inclusion, closing-cross buying, arbitrage, and the demand window into July 2.
• ▶ 17:24 Post-Inclusion Dynamics and Long-Term Bull Thesis (17:24 - 20:31) - - Covers the post-July 6 reversal, SpaceX’s market cap and moat, Tesla synergy, and short-term caution.
• ▶ 20:31 Price Prediction and Confidence Interval (20:31 - 27:49) - - Reveals the 95% confidence interval price target, mean targets for July 1-2, and statistical reasoning.
• ▶ 27:49 Trade Execution and Downside Protection (27:49 - 31:34) - - Details the actual trade, technical/institutional rationale, and the stop-loss downside scenario.