SPACEX 🚨 EVERYTHING CHANGES IN 9 DAYS ‼️ SpaceX Price PREDICTION

The video analyzes SpaceX’s post-IPO trading, emphasizing extreme volatility driven by a massive supply-demand imbalance—only 4.2% of shares were allocated despite enormous oversubscription. Key dates include June 26 and especially July 6, when Russell and Nasdaq index inclusion could trigger a sharp price run-up, while macro risks like falling oil and gas prices also affect valuation. The speaker warns that 90% of IPOs fall below their offer price within a year, and SpaceX’s staggered lockup schedule releases 37% of shares by late August, nearly 93% by November, and allows Elon Musk to sell after 366 days, creating heavy downward pressure. Rather than chasing moves, he advocates following charts, waiting for a break above $224–$225 or below $191–$192, and starting to build a position in mid-December while managing uncertainty with limit orders.

• ▶ 0:46 Two key dates to watch: June 26 (nine days away) and July 6, the "bigger date" after the July 4th weekend, when inclusion in the Russell and Nasdaq indexes could drastically change the stock.
• ▶ 1:21 After three days of trading, SpaceX stock has delivered three green days — opening up $8, pushing to 225, then pulling back to around 192, with more volatility expected.
• ▶ 2:54 Only 4.2% of shares were allocated for the IPO despite enormous demand, with the offering oversubscribed four to five times (and similar deals up to 50 times), creating a major supply-demand imbalance.
• ▶ 4:23 The draft memorandum charges "fees, not tolls" for strait passage, setting a dangerous precedent that could alter global shipping lanes.
• ▶ 5:29 Macro risks matter for SpaceX valuation: oil is expected to drop toward $50 and gas toward $2, so investors must consider the broader market, not SpaceX in isolation.
• ▶ 7:05 90% of IPOs trade below their IPO price within 12 months after lockup expiry, as early investors sell—so expect volatility despite SpaceX's quality.
• ▶ 8:01 Key technical levels: a break above $224–$225 could run nicely, while a break below $191–$192 may retrace into the $180s–$170s; strategy is to wait for a break or DCA in.
• ▶ 12:30 SPY inclusion will not occur for a full year, aligning with Elon Musk being allowed to sell at 366 days out, which could create a heavy wave of share supply.
• ▶ 12:41 Many lockup periods are critical to understand—not just for swing traders but even for investors planning to “buy no matter what.”
• ▶ 13:16 After the expected August earnings call, SpaceX can release 20% of shares two trading days later, plus an additional 10%; another 7% unlocks at the 70-day mark, totaling 37% unlocked between August 13th and the end of August.
• ▶ 13:55 Historically, 90% of IPOs fall below their IPO price within 12 months, and while 20% double, many give back gains before the year ends.
• ▶ 14:50 Lockup expirations can get nasty, often triggering 2%–10% price drops as a flood of shares hits the market.
• ▶ 15:13 SpaceX is using a staggered lockup instead of a single 180-day unlock: 37% unlocks by end of August, ~93% by November, and Elon Musk can sell freely after 366 days from the IPO.
• ▶ 16:22 He plans to start buying in mid-December, follow the charts instead of getting emotional, and set limits to manage uncertainty.
• ▶ 17:39 He highlights AAL as a play because lower jet fuel prices benefit the spot market, framing it as a community effort.
• ▶ 19:25 He expects SpaceX's addition to the Russell and Nasdaq to cause a run-up in price, but with big volatility, and he'll try to trade those swings.

• ▶ 0:00 Introduction, IPO Performance, and Demand (0:00 - 3:41) - - Introduces key dates, recent SpaceX IPO trading, volatility levels, and IPO allocation issues.
• ▶ 3:41 Market Context, Lockup Stats, and Index Inclusion (3:41 - 12:30) - - Covers market status, macro risks, lockup statistics, trading strategy, and Russell/Nasdaq inclusion events.
• ▶ 12:30 SPY Inclusion and Share Unlock Schedule (12:30 - 13:50) - - Discusses S&P 500 inclusion, Elon Musk lockup, and the upcoming share unlock schedule.
• ▶ 13:50 Lockup Risks and Staggered Schedule (13:50 - 16:14) - - Reviews IPO performance, lockup expiration risks, and the staggered lockup timeline.
• ▶ 16:14 Personal Plan, Community, and Closing (16:14 - 19:57) - - Details the mid-December buying plan, community shout-outs, inner circle offer, and final call to action.