SpaceX's S-1 Just Hinted at Tesla Acquisition

The video highlights a pivotal moment for Tesla and SpaceX, with SpaceX's amended S-1 filing ahead of its June 12 IPO hinting at major acquisitions—potentially including Tesla—through newly added language allowing significant equity issuance for strategic transactions. Meanwhile, Tesla's European FSD rollout accelerates with Estonia joining the Netherlands and Lithuania, and Belgium expected next, marking a steady regulatory expansion. In Texas, Tesla secured authorization to operate driverless vehicles as Level 4, and a Cybercab autonomously drove itself out of Giga Texas, signaling progress toward a robotaxi service in Austin. The discussion also counters previous "brand damage" narratives by attributing last year's sales slump to inventory shortages, while current European sales are surging due to strong product demand, high gas prices, and compounding positive factors. Overall, the episode forecasts major tech M&A and rapid autonomous-vehicle expansion in the second half of the year.

• ▶ 0:00 SpaceX filed an S-1 amendment ahead of a June 12 IPO, with one sentence hinting strongly that SpaceX may acquire Tesla.
• ▶ 0:15 European FSD expansion continues: Estonia approved supervised FSD, joining the Netherlands and Lithuania, with Belgium potentially approving in the coming weeks.
• ▶ 0:36 Texas robotaxi progress accelerates: the first Cybercab drove itself out of Giga Texas, and Texas has authorized Tesla to operate driverless vehicles as Level 4.
• ▶ 1:54 SpaceX filed an S-1 amendment ahead of its June 12 IPO, adding new language allowing it to issue "a significant amount of equity" for acquisitions, divestitures, or strategic transactions — language absent from the original filing.
• ▶ 2:44 The use of plural "transactions" is seen as a major signal: SpaceX likely has multiple deals in mind beyond the known Cursor deal, with Tesla named as a potential target.
• ▶ 3:29 The hosts frame this as part of a broader wave of tech M&A, predicting "a lot more fireworks in the second half of this year" as companies move during a critical policy window.
• ▶ 4:28 SpaceX reserved 5% of IPO shares for employees, friends, and family of executives, and these shares are not subject to any lockup period.
• ▶ 4:53 Elon Musk has a special 366-day lockup on all his shares after the prospectus date, meaning he cannot sell while others can.
• ▶ 5:50 The guest notes the lockup is unprecedented, staged to avoid sharp "cliffs" that markets watch for, helping smooth the IPO.
• ▶ 6:14 Tesla FSD (Supervised) is approved in Estonia as the third European country after the Netherlands and Lithuania, with immediate effect from May 29th via Dutch RDW type certification.
• ▶ 6:56 Belgium is pushing for next approval, with a transport official saying approval should come "in the coming weeks" and that FSD remains supervised for now.
• ▶ 7:33 Jeeoff expects clusters of EU countries to approve FSD over the summer, calling the process a "paperwork loop" and describing his own weekend FSD driving as "effortless" and "life-changing."
• ▶ 9:02 Tesla is actively hiring vehicle operators in Slovenia and Austria, pointing to upcoming FSD activity in those countries.
• ▶ 9:02 The hiring is cited as a signal that FSD rollout or expansion is expected next in Slovenia and Austria.
• ▶ 9:02 Tesla may be preparing FSD testing or validation operations in these European markets, consistent with the broader European FSD push.
• ▶ 9:23 European car sales are skyrocketing, with France up 6,655% and Denmark up 136%, plus gains in Spain, Sweden, and Norway.
• ▶ 9:36 Electrified vehicle registrations across Europe rose about 21% and made up over two-thirds of total registrations in April.
• ▶ 9:45 Growth isn't just Tesla—Tesla is also rising—though year-over-year comparisons are skewed by factory shutdowns in the prior year; overall demand has improved.
• [10:06–10:16] Jeeoff confirms the growth is genuine, contrasting it with last year when the new Model Y was not in inventory in key countries.
• [10:32–10:56] This year is different because the older Model Y was available and despite distractions like "Elon and politics," there is now actual measurable growth.
• [10:56–12:17] Growth is driven by cumulative factors: high oil prices, strong word-of-mouth/NPS, best product, FSD approval, and improved supply—each reinforcing the others.
• ▶ 12:20 Last year's sales slump was blamed on "brand damage" from Musk's politics, but that narrative missed the real issue.
• ▶ 12:34 A实地 check across multiple European cities found zero Tesla inventory, proving the actual problem was a lack of cars to sell.
• ▶ 13:06 The current recovery is driven by higher gas prices, reduced brand damage, and the fundamental strength of the product — "People love Teslas."
• ▶ 13:23 A major story: Elon Musk posted a video of a Cybercab with no steering wheel driving itself out of the Gigafactory to a parking lot.
• ▶ 13:37 Ashok Elluswamy says the Cybercab will soon drive itself into Austin City, "reporting for duty."
• ▶ 14:04 Tesla received authorization from Texas to operate driverless vehicles commercially under a new law effective May 28, self-certifying as Level 4 automation.
• ▶ 14:23 The guest rejects bearish claims that Tesla won't qualify for Texas robo-taxi approval, arguing Tesla has been working toward qualification all along.
• ▶ 14:51 He downplays SAE automation-level metrics as overblown by both bulls and bears, saying consumers care about how the product works in their lives, not technical classifications.
• ▶ 15:40 He calls Texas approval "very important," highlighting cars autonomously driving out of the factory and staging themselves for distribution, with wireless charging enabling even farther reach.
• ▶ 16:59 Tesla is redefining the key metric for autonomous ride-hailing from car count to sheer volume and vehicle concentration, predicting an unprecedented density of Cybercabs.
• ▶ 17:39 Tesla’s expansion is described as a "silent buildup" of infrastructure (service centers, charging stalls, etc.), while the media only counts headline car numbers like Waymo's 3,700 vs. Tesla's ~700.
• ▶ 18:19 Despite Waymo's six-year head start, Tesla's rollout is called the fastest in history for autonomous ride-share, and is expected to surpass Waymo in volume.
• ▶ 18:35 Ashok's statement is meaningful because it comes from him, not just Elon Musk, adding credibility to the Cybercab timeline.
• ▶ 18:42 Ashok says the Cybercab will be "reporting for duty in Austin," confirming the plan for a robo-taxi service.
• ▶ 18:52 The speaker cautions that "Ashok soon" may differ from our own interpretation, so the actual deployment timeline remains uncertain.
• ▶ 18:59 Moving cars from the factory to the Austin depot is straightforward and could be done quickly if desired, but the challenge is making it a legitimate part of the production plan.
• ▶ 19:19 Shipping more cars to the depot directly boosts revenue, though the speaker acknowledges "We're not there yet."
• ▶ 19:27 A software release hold and rollout "discontinuities" are limiting driverless vehicle expansion; once the next release resolves edge cases, the vehicle count should "move up significantly."
• ▶ 19:40 Sales figures move up significantly before the conversation shifts to a new FSD update.
• ▶ 19:45 A weekend-shared China FSD video shows the car handling "very scary" tight corners and difficult conditions, completing the maneuver on its own—even backing up without human intervention.
• ▶ 20:04 The key point: FSD is designed to drive in any scenario worldwide, not just pre-planned routes—it "thinks and reasons" in real time, as shown by its decision to back up when it couldn't turn.
• ▶ 20:36 The car detected a cyclist approaching from ~50 feet away and immediately reversed to get out of the way.
• ▶ 20:45 After the cyclist passed, the car moved forward again and completed the unprotected left turn.
• ▶ 20:51 The speaker argues this sequence proves genuine reasoning—not a coded heuristic—since the car assessed it was blocking the lane, checked traffic behind it, and then acted.
• ▶ 21:53 FSD daily miles jumped from 18.5 million in April to 26.7 million, showing rapid adoption growth.
• ▶ 22:13 Morgan Stanley highlights FSD's ~90% gross margins, which can significantly boost Tesla's profitability and support the autonomous thesis.
• ▶ 22:42 AlphaWise data shows increased hiring of AI safety operators in northern metros, signaling Tesla is gearing up to expand robotaxi operations.
• ▶ 23:31 The market is rotating toward AI-interconnected and memory companies with real revenue growth, but memory makers are highly cyclical and crowded, so their earnings aren't seen as durable.
• ▶ 24:26 Tesla and SpaceX stand apart with massive moats—Starship, Starlink, FSD, and Robotaxi—where almost no one else has a comparable, scalable offering.
• ▶ 25:06 Their high multiples are justified by durable future earnings, high barriers to entry, and little real competition, as Musk keeps carving moats that others haven't proven capable of matching.
• ▶ 26:00 Tesla faces "really barreling" competition from rivals with self-driving systems, so it must ramp robotaxis quickly — ideally "this month."
• ▶ 26:08 The speaker warns Tesla is "ramping into nothing" (no ready market/ecosystem), so it must be "extremely careful" — though no competitor is yet "very close" to Tesla.
• ▶ 26:30 Tesla's business durability and moat justify its high P/E ratio and will continue to confound skeptics, reinforcing the long-term investment thesis.

• ▶ 26:47 Tesla is undergoing a structural, long-term transition, not a short-term shift, as highlighted in the Morgan Stanley note.

• ▶ 26:54 The core of the change is a major transformation in where Tesla's revenue comes from and how its margin structure is composed.

• ▶ 26:58 Top analysts are trying to position themselves ahead of this shift, making early understanding and pricing-in of the transition a key priority.

• ▶ 27:08 Analysts were caught off guard by AI, repeatedly calling Nvidia a bubble despite its revenue growth, until infrastructure investment proved earnings were real.
• ▶ 27:36 The same infrastructure-to-earnings logic applies to Tesla, but most analysts still miss its durable moats and infrastructure build.
• ▶ 27:58 Leading voices are working to educate the broader analyst community, but convincing them about Tesla remains unfinished work.
• ▶ 28:20 People claiming Michael Burry will eventually be proven right about an AI bubble ignore that his prediction was specific and imminent, not a vague long-term warning.
• ▶ 28:31 Burry predicted a crash around November and December; six months later, major AI stocks like Nvidia, Broadcom, and Micron are at all-time highs, with multiple new trillion-dollar companies minted.
• ▶ 28:51 GPU pricing shifts notwithstanding, even six-year-old GPUs are holding rental prices, showing AI compute demand remains strong and contradicting the imminent-bust thesis.
• ▶ 29:01 Being right on a thesis isn't enough; getting the timing right is essential, and we're at a pivotal transition stage.
• ▶ 29:13 AI hardware support companies are expected to benefit from a durable, long-term tailwind, not just a short-term trade.
• ▶ 29:28 The market is entering a "physical AI world" — a very durable, multi-year cycle that "may be one of the biggest things that hits the market" ▶ 29:36, yet markets may not be ready for millions of self-driving cars and working bots [29:42–29:56].
• ▶ 30:02 Cisco was the biggest company before the internet, making it the early dominant symbol of the internet era.
• ▶ 30:09 Enthusiasm ran ahead of fundamentals, sparking the dot-com bust as market excitement outpaced actual revenue.
• ▶ 30:13 Despite the crash, the internet delivered huge long-term productivity gains — real technology, but with an overheated early market cycle.
• ▶ 30:13 The speaker highlights something delivering "huge productivity for many companies," linking broader tech or business trends to Tesla’s market position.
• ▶ 30:16 Addressing Herbert, the speaker notes they have discussed this topic frequently on the show.
• ▶ 30:19 The speaker distances themselves from the view that Tesla "should be $600 right now," signaling a more measured stance on near-term valuation.
• ▶ 30:24 Tesla has missed multiple near-term milestones it set late last year and in January, including robotaxi deployment, the Optimus reveal originally promised for March, and even the Roadster.
• ▶ 30:48 The speaker sees a pattern of missed promises, but is not overly concerned since AI-related timelines always had a “guard band”; still, it raises questions about execution.
• ▶ 31:20 The bull case rests on Tesla’s unique portfolio, with physical real-world AI products expected to drive significant revenue in 2027–2028, while large-scale energy (“Terapab”) should not be modeled as a near-term revenue driver.
• ▶ 31:51 Short-term delays are undeniable for robots and Robotaxi, but the key watchpoint is whether these delays push back Tesla’s long-term vision — that would be a huge red flag.
• ▶ 32:15 With Optimus, the unveil slipped, yet longer-term production goals (1M and 10M per year) still appear on track, as the company continues building and investing.
• ▶ 32:28 Robotaxi hasn’t ramped meaningfully, but new fleet-support hiring across cities signals active deployment work — the real question is whether scale-out is delayed, not just early milestones.
• ▶ 33:22 A world-first fully autonomous coast-to-coast drive across Canada was completed using Tesla FSD, starting at Horseshoe Bay, West Vancouver, and ending in Nova Scotia.
• ▶ 33:52 The trip covered 3,700 miles in 4 days and 21 hours on FSD version 14.3 with zero disengagements—the driver pressed the button once and let it drive itself.
• ▶ 34:09 The host calls this a bigger step change than AlphaGo or GPT because it happened in an ordinary customer car with no special hardware or production support, arguing FSD is underestimated and “magical.”
• ▶ 34:48 FSD is not theoretical; you can simply use it and it performs real-world driving.
• ▶ 34:57 Tesla has completed four coast-to-coast FSD drives in five months (U.S. and Canada), including L.A. to Myrtle Beach, N.Y. to L.A. twice, and Vancouver to Halifax.
• ▶ 35:08 The four trips total 12,427 miles, proving FSD reliability repeatedly rather than via a one-time demo.
• ▶ 35:25 Companies typically validate products by staging events or hiring influencers/celebrities/employees, which creates a controlled and potentially biased presentation.
• ▶ 35:41 In contrast, independent enthusiasts and "patrons of the product" chronicled the FSD demonstration, making the validation more authentic and credible.
• ▶ 35:50 Because the drive was shown as "intervention free" by unpaid enthusiasts, the speaker can believe the result, highlighting that enthusiast-led validation carries far more persuasive power than corporate-sanctioned demos.
• ▶ 35:55 FSD parking experience is mixed: many users have to intervene because the car often doesn't select the parking spot they want, making it seem incomplete.
• ▶ 36:14 When used point-to-point, FSD generally parks fine on its own—the only issue is the chosen spot may not be the closest or most ideal, not the execution.
• ▶ 36:30 Future FSD versions will add improved reasoning to close the convenience gap, since major driving safety issues are largely solved and remaining work is about comfort and optimality.
• ▶ 36:56 Anyone can replicate the Full Self-Driving result using a regular production car — no special mockup or prototype required.
• ▶ 37:27 The unbreakable screen analogy: real validation came when independent users tested it themselves (e.g., dropping it from a drone or parachute at ~1,000 feet) and it survived.
• ▶ 38:00 The demonstration only requires a standard production vehicle — no special hardware or extra equipment is needed to achieve the result.
• ▶ 38:05 Shipping a product into customers' hands—letting them play with and experience it—is "the difference," not just demos or promises.
• ▶ 38:13 Every Tesla, including a regular, older Model 3, can do this because the software keeps updating—no new hardware required.
• ▶ 38:22 Even using already-old software versions on a coast-to-coast run, the system still works, proving real-world reliability of the software-update approach.
• ▶ 38:28 Cybercab software is "working" in practice, with vehicles multiplying and driving autonomously all over Giga Texas, as shown in footage from Joe Techmire.
• ▶ 38:36 Cybercabs are autonomously completing a two-mile trip from the production exit to the west end of the lot, providing real-world evidence of operational autonomous driving in a factory environment.
• ▶ 38:51 Tesla has been granted Level 4 classification, and footage shows dozens of Cybercabs moving with hatches open and wheel covers prepped for shipping, indicating the fleet is scaling toward live deployment and delivery logistics.
• ▶ 39:07 The speaker highlights the massive number of vehicles at Fremont, imagining a future where they drive off autonomously rather than being parked or manually driven.
• ▶ 39:26 A camouflaged Model Y L was spotted testing at the Fremont factory, with a source claiming US production is “confirmed” and a North America launch expected “in the coming weeks.”
• ▶ 39:40 The speaker gives a cautious take, noting they cannot verify the confirmation, but a near-term US launch is still the most likely outcome.
• ▶ 39:41 Jeeoff says a longer Model Y variant is the most likely outcome and would be "great for Model Y sales," adding variety to an already ubiquitous lineup.
• ▶ 40:04 He notes he predicted both longer and shorter Model Y versions, got "half of it right," but still believes a shorter version makes sense to cut mass and cost, especially for markets wanting smaller cars.
• ▶ 40:45 He expects the US launch to be "imminent," with pilot production possibly underway; extra testing is needed for locally sourced parts and new suppliers, but the launch should happen in the second half of the year "for sure."
• ▶ 41:34 Host and guest conclude the Model Y discussion, noting a spotted vehicle "certainly looks like it's on its way," with positive infrastructure signals.
• ▶ 41:41 Cybercab expectations are tempered: waiting for real video of Cybercabs in robotaxi service or self-driving, which could still be months away.
• ▶ 42:07 Sign-off promotes following Jeeoff on X and highlights herbalm.com as a resource for Tesla investors.

• ▶ 0:00 Weekend Developments & European FSD Push (0:00 - 12:18) - - SpaceX S-1/IPO details, Estonia FSD approval, Tesla hiring, and European sales growth kick off the show.
• ▶ 12:18 Sales Recap and FSD/Robo-Taxi Momentum (12:18 - 21:29) - - From brand-damage recap to Cybercab autonomy, Texas approval, Waymo comparison, and FSD reasoning events, the focus shifts to Tesla’s robotaxi push.
• ▶ 21:29 Market, AI, and Tesla’s Moat (21:29 - 42:17) - - Morgan Stanley’s FSD report, AI/memory market dynamics, Tesla’s durable moat, and the AI-bubble debate close out the discussion.