Tesla's Ultimate Backstabbing | New Tax Credits Are Here

Tesla was cleared in a major federal investigation into phantom braking, with regulators closing a four-year probe covering roughly 695,000 Model 3 and Model Y vehicles after finding no crash risk or injury pattern. Meanwhile, California’s new EV rebate offers up to $3,500 off qualifying cars, but Tesla is effectively excluded because the company moved its headquarters to Texas, while California-based automakers like Rivian and Lucid can bypass the price cap. Tesla also launched its first Optimus production line, though Musk cautioned output will be slow as cheaper Chinese and Boston Dynamics humanoids accelerate toward mass manufacturing. In brighter news, Tesla’s European and UK sales rebounded strongly in June, its insurance business expanded into Washington state with discounts for FSD usage, and a new report showed modern EV batteries retain up to 95% of range after five years, easing long-term ownership concerns. Overall, the video highlights a mixed landscape for Tesla: regulatory and policy headwinds at home, growing competitive pressure in robotics, but stronger demand abroad and mounting evidence that EV durability is improving.

• ▶ 0:03 Tesla has been cleared in a major federal safety investigation.
• ▶ 0:07 California's new EV rebate program will partially exclude Tesla.
• ▶ 0:12 Tesla's Optimus production is finally starting, alongside a wave of new cheap humanoid robots.
• ▶ 0:21 Regulators closed a four-year Tesla phantom braking investigation, covering roughly 695,000 Model 3 and Model Y vehicles (2021–2022), finding no pattern of crash risk, no crashes, and no injuries tied to the issue.
• ▶ 1:08 Complaints spiked at 314 in early 2022, aligned with Tesla's 2021 switch to a camera-only system; after a software fix, complaints fell to just 3 in the first half of 2026.
• ▶ 2:20 The closure applies only to the phantom braking case and does not affect a larger, separate investigation into 3.2 million cars using Full Self-Driving and Autopilot, though it's framed as a vindication of Tesla's camera-only bet.
• [3:08–3:20] New California EV rebate offers up to $3,500 off a new electric car, making Teslas and other EVs more affordable.
• [3:21–3:35] With the $7,500 federal EV tax credit gone, California allocated $135 million in state funds to fill the gap, making this "basically the only EV incentive most buyers have left."
• [3:42–3:52] The rebate works as an instant discount at the dealer, and eligibility is limited to first-time EV buyers with a new car priced under $50,000.
• ▶ 4:01 Used EVs priced at $25,000 or less qualify for a $1,750 rebate under California's program.
• ▶ 4:11 The rebate helps pull older used EVs, such as Tesla Model 3s, into a more accessible price range for more buyers.
• ▶ 4:18 Most of Tesla's lineup qualifies under the $50,000 California rebate price cap, including the Model 3 and Model Y.
• ▶ 4:24 The Model 3 starts at $36,990, and with the full rebate a first-time California buyer could pay around $33,500.
• ▶ 4:33 The Model Y starts at $39,990, dropping to roughly $36,500 with the full rebate, and even longer-range trims may qualify.
• ▶ 4:43 The full $3,500 rebate is split in half: $1,750 from the state and $1,750 from the automaker.
• ▶ 4:52 It’s unclear whether Tesla or other automakers will contribute their half, so a buyer might only receive the state’s portion.
• ▶ 5:03 The state’s half is still described as real money off the car purchase, which could matter to buyers on the fence.
• ▶ 5:14 California's $135 million EV rebate is a fixed, finite pool of money, not a rolling budget.
• ▶ 5:16 The rebate is awarded strictly on a first-come, first-served basis, so eligible buyers must act quickly.
• ▶ 5:21 Once the fund is depleted, no further rebates will be issued, so hesitation risks missing out entirely.
• ▶ 5:24 The California rebate program is confirmed done, but it stops at pricier trims.
• [5:27–5:40] The Model 3 Performance ($54,990), Model Y Performance ($57,990), and three-row Model Y L ($61,990) are capped and do not qualify.
• [5:40–5:44] The Model S and Model X are also excluded, though they were never realistic candidates.
• ▶ 5:46 California's EV rebate has a major loophole: automakers headquartered in California bypass the price cap entirely, based on company HQ location, not where vehicles are made.
• ▶ 5:52 Rivian (Irvine) and Lucid (Bay Area) both qualify, making even their most expensive models—like a ~$70,000 Lucid or a high-$50,000 Rivian—eligible for state incentives.
• ▶ 6:07 Tesla is excluded because it moved headquarters to Austin, Texas in 2021, despite building many cars in Fremont—so a $70,000 Lucid can get state money while a $55,000 Tesla cannot.
• ▶ 6:26 The Tesla headquarters move is rooted in a long-running feud between Elon Musk and California over taxes, regulations, and politics.
• ▶ 6:26 For first-time EV buyers in California, the Model 3 and base Model Y have become meaningfully cheaper—a silver lining of the policy changes.
• ▶ 6:51 More details on the new incentives and pricing are expected soon, and the host will follow up with updates.
• ▶ 6:56 Tesla's first Optimus production line is live at Fremont, but Musk warns output will be very slow due to the robot's complexity, with around 10,000 unique parts and delicate hand precision required.
• ▶ 8:57 Chinese competitor UBTE launched the UWorld U1 humanoid at ~$16,500, logged 13,000 orders on day one, and China is pushing ahead fast on cost — making Tesla look like one of the more expensive options.
• ▶ 10:38 Boston Dynamics unveiled a much simpler Atlas designed for mass production, and Hyundai plans to build 30,000+ a year — signaling the humanoid race has shifted from research projects to real volume manufacturing.
• ▶ 11:27 Tesla's European/UK sales rebounded strongly in June (UK +42% YoY, France >100%, Sweden +56%), driven by the refreshed Model Y and aggressive pricing, though North America remains weak and margins are the key question ahead of July 22 earnings.
• ▶ 13:12 Tesla is expanding its insurance business into Washington (16th state), pricing based on driving behavior and offering roughly 10% discounts when over half your miles are on FSD — reinforcing a feedback loop that rewards software usage and gathers more driving data.
• ▶ 14:33 The phone app now shows a blue FSD route with status while the car drives itself, and Tesla added new accessories like a Model Y dual-zone fridge ($595) and Cybertruck air mattress ($295), highlighting Tesla's ongoing over-the-air and accessory-driven ownership experience.
• ▶ 16:02 A new report shows EV batteries are lasting far longer than expected, with newer models retaining up to 95% of range after 5 years and only 0.3% of post-2022 vehicles needing a battery replacement.
• ▶ 17:32 Frequent high-power fast charging can degrade battery range about twice as fast as slower charging, but overall battery anxiety is "mostly overblown" while replacement costs have dropped to roughly $5,000–$16,000.
• ▶ 19:12 Rivian beat expectations with 12,194 deliveries and raised its full-year target, as the cheaper R2 SUV's ramp-up is seen as critical to reaching sustained profitability.
• ▶ 20:18 BYD set a record export month, shipping 175,000 cars out of China—nearly double year-over-year—with over 43% of sales now overseas, and appears to be passing Tesla in purely electric sales.
• ▶ 21:52 Chinese EV makers (NIO, Leap Motor, XPeng) posted record or strong June deliveries with aggressively priced, feature-rich EVs, and legacy European automakers cannot match these prices—though US tariffs keep most of these cars out of America.
• ▶ 22:13 Apple’s first foldable iPhone, likely called the iPhone Ultra, is expected this fall with a 5.5-inch outer/7.8-inch inner screen, but supply will be extremely tight (only 500k–1M units) with a $2,300–$2,500 price and possible 4–6+ week wait times.
• ▶ 24:46 Computer memory prices have soared, with DDR5 kits reaching $4,000 and typical 32GB kits jumping from $110 to $275–$350, driven by AI factories shifting production away from normal RAM and expected to stay high until 2027.
• ▶ 26:28 Nvidia debuted a financing model for smaller AI cloud companies: it supplies chips in exchange for a cut of future earnings, with a buyback backstop, drawing criticism as a risky loop but expanding access to AI infrastructure.
• ▶ 27:36 Google's Gemini 3.5 Pro is cleared for a July launch, giving it a rare first-mover advantage as one of the only top-tier models not held up by government review.
• ▶ 29:05 Japan is testing fire hydrant signs fitted with Starlink antennas for emergency Wi-Fi during disasters — an unofficial proof of concept using existing street infrastructure.
• ▶ 30:07 Emirates has delivered over one million free Starlink connections on 60+ flights daily, moving more than a petabyte of data, making paid airline Wi-Fi hard to compete with.
• ▶ 31:25 Quick mentions: Tesla’s patriotic Cybercab wrap and July 7 Giga Texas tease, Samsung’s boxier foldable ahead of July 22, and Apple reportedly ordering ~10 million foldable units.

• ▶ 0:00 Opening, Tesla News, and California EV Rebates (0:00 - 6:56) - - Tesla's phantom braking investigation closes, California's new EV rebate details, and Model 3 eligibility.
• ▶ 6:56 Humanoid Robots and Tesla Optimus (6:56 - 11:26) - - Optimus production ramps up while Chinese rivals and Boston Dynamics push the humanoid robot race forward.
• ▶ 11:26 Tesla Sales, Insurance, and Accessories (11:26 - 15:57) - - Tesla sales rebound in Europe/UK, insurance expands, FSD routes show in the app, and new accessories arrive.
• ▶ 15:57 EV Industry: Batteries, Subaru, Kia, Rivian, and Lucid (15:57 - 20:18) - - Battery longevity findings plus EV pricing, deliveries, and leadership changes from major automakers.
• ▶ 20:18 China EV Sales and Apple Foldable (20:18 - 24:46) - - BYD posts record exports, and Apple's first foldable iPhone is expected this fall with supply and Siri notes.
• ▶ 24:46 AI, Memory, and Chip Costs (24:46 - 29:05) - - Memory prices surge, Nvidia offers AI financing, Google clears Gemini 3.5 Pro, and Anthropic launches a drug-discovery tool.
• ▶ 29:05 SpaceX, Starlink, and Quick Mentions (29:05 - 32:49) - - Starlink tests and adoption grow, plus quick tech mentions and a $1.3M electric track car.