**Summary**
The speaker discusses the recent SpaceX IPO, noting that the stock has only been trading for a few days and has shown strong early moves (opening around $8, peaking near $225, then pulling back to ~$192). He expects continued volatility and outlines two pivotal dates:
1. **June 26** – SpaceX will be added to the Russell indices (Russell 1000 & top 200). While ETFs will have already placed their buy orders, the actual buying occurs after the close, often leading to a brief sell‑off the next day as early buyers lock in gains.
2. **July 6** – SpaceX will join the Nasdaq‑100 (QQQ/QQQM). This is viewed as the larger catalyst, with anticipated buying pressure of roughly $8‑10 billion that could push the stock higher, though the speaker warns of possible “sell‑the‑news” weakness.
Key price levels he watches:
- **Above ~225** → expects a strong upward run.
- **Below ~192** → anticipates a retrace into the $180‑$170 range.
He emphasizes that the stock’s future will be heavily influenced by upcoming **lock‑up expirations**:
- Only ~4.2 % of shares were floated in the IPO, yet demand far exceeded supply (multiple‑times oversubscribed).
- Starting in mid‑July/August, a staggered release of shares will begin: ~37 % by end‑August, rising to ~65 % by September‑October, and potentially >90 % by November, with the final tranche around the 180‑day mark.
- Historical IPO data shows ~90 % of IPOs trade below their issue price within 12 months due to lock‑up selling, while ~20 % double in the first year before falling back.
Given this, his strategy is:
- **Stay patient** until the lock‑up period is largely over (planning to start active buying around December).
- In the meantime, **monitor charts, set limits, and consider swing‑trading or dollar‑cost averaging** based on whether the price breaks above 225 or below 192.
- He also touches on macro factors (oil prices, geopolitical news) that could affect sentiment and advises viewers to consider the broader market when trading SpaceX.
Finally, he promotes his Discord community and invites viewers to join for live trade updates and educational content.
1. SpaceX's IPO had been trading for 3 days at the time of the video.
2. The first key date mentioned is June 26.
3. The second key date mentioned is July 6.
4. On June 26, SpaceX will be added to the Russell USN indices, including the Russell 1000 and Russell Top 200.
5. On July 6, SpaceX will be added to the NASDAQ 100 (QQQ/QQQM).
6. When added to these indices, ETFs that track them will automatically purchase SpaceX shares.
7. Only 4.2 % of SpaceX’s total shares were allocated for the IPO.
8. IPO demand was heavily oversubscribed, with reports of 4‑5× oversubscription and some allocations showing up to 50× oversubscription.
9. An example cited: the IPO offered about $75 billion worth of shares while orders totaled nearly $300 billion.
10. The stock opened at $8, rose to around $225, then fell to about $200, and was trading near $192 at the time of the video.
11. SpaceX recorded three consecutive up‑days (green days) after its IPO.
12. Pre‑market price was reported as $205 at the time of recording.
13. A 14‑point draft memorandum was released and obtained by Bloomberg.
14. The memorandum concerns a signing scheduled for the upcoming Friday.
15. The agreement involves charging fees, not tolls, for passage through a strait.
16. Oil prices were quoted at $76–$77 per barrel.
17. Historically, about 90 % of IPOs trade below their IPO price within 12 months due to lock‑up expirations.
18. Approximately 20 % of IPOs achieve a 100 % price gain in the first 12 months.
19. After SpaceX’s earnings call, insiders will be allowed to sell 20 % of their shares two trading days later, plus an additional 10 % (total 30 %).
20. An additional 7 % of shares become eligible for sale after 70 days (around the end of August).
21. Between mid‑August and the end of August, roughly 37 % of SpaceX’s shares will be unlocked for sale.
22. By the end of August, about 37 % of shares will be unlocked.
23. The lock‑up period for SpaceX shares is 180 days after the IPO, after which the remaining shares become eligible for sale.
24. Approximately 366 days after the IPO date, Elon Musk will be permitted to sell his shares.